Belgrade, March 29th, 1996

MILOSEVIC’s TIGHT GRIP?

International mediators regarded the signature of Slobodan Milosevic as the key to the success of the Dayton Agreement, which has brought a fragile peace to Bosnia. But has he taken his commitment to establish democracy and justice in the rump Yugoslavia seriously?

A growing list of violations aimed at the independent media and the opposition suggests not. First, the Belgrade municipal council assumed control of the only independent television station, Studio B, in the Yugoslav capital. Then the Serbian government closed down the Soros Fund Yugoslavia, funded by the billionaire American philanthropist George Soros. Live broadcasts from the Serbian assembly have been cancelled while parliamentary life has degenerated into a crude instrument of control wielded by Milosevic's party, the SPS. The authorities have stepped up domestic repression throughout the republic.
Milosevic is in a fundamentally weak position. In addition to the established opposition, the hundreds of thousands of refugees from formerly Serb-held territory in Croatia and Bosnia regard him as a traitor who sold them out after having encouraged them to resist rule from Zagreb and Sarajevo. Serbia's large minorities, especially the Albanian community in the southern Serbian province of Kosovo, also reject Milosevic and his programme.
As a consequence, he now seeks support from the international community. The deal he offers is continuing peace in Bosnia-Hercegovina in exchange for complete control over the internal life of Serbia and Montenegro. To achieve this, Milosevic has to destroy the relationship between the independent media and the opposition, on the one hand, and the democratic institutions of the international community on the other.
The elevation of Milosevic in the West to the position of chief guarantor of the Dayton Accords has been greeted with the deepest despair inside Serbia. There is a strong suspicion that the international community is prepared to turn a blind eye to violations of democratic procedures because he has proven to be so accommodating on the Bosnian issue. But even that issue is being compromised.
In the Republic of Srpska, the Serb entity in Bosnia, international organizations have shown no inclination to support civic movements or the independent media. This will ensure that nationalists will win the elections, if they even take place, and the results of ethnic cleansing will be accepted.
Nobody can wish away Slobodan Milosevic and he is, of course, the most important political partner in the region. But he is not the only person upon whom peace and stability in the Balkans depends. If too much emphasis his placed on his role, and that of Franjo Tudjman in Croatia and the growing nationalist position of President Izetbegovic's party in Bosnia, then the three leaderships will be encouraged to feed off one another's political strategy. A suffocation of democracy in Serbia aids anti-democratic forces in Croatia and Bosnia. The bonds connecting Milosevic and Tudjman are secret and perhaps even subconscious but no less real for that.
Autocracy seems to come naturally to Slobodan Milosevic. But today, in contrast to previous years, he is able to garnish it with a rational explanation: I have to be given a free hand to deal with all those crazy Serbs or they will be intent on continuing the war.
But in order to sustain his autocracy, Milosevic and his government constantly needs to manufacture new enemies. These used to be Croats, Muslims, or Albanians. But now they are the fundamental core of civil society - the Soros foundation, peace groups and the liberal intelligentsia - groups who can hardly be accused of wanting to foment war in Bosnia.The police, the media and the economy remain firmly in the grip of one man.
Paradoxically, the continuing exclusion of Yugoslavia from international organisations like the OSCE promotes such a development. It would be much more difficult for the Serbian government to shut down Studio B or the Soros foundation if the country were more closely in tegrated diplomatically with Europe. The worst of all possible solutions is the combination of diplomatic exclusion whilst relying on the good offices of the regime to keep the peace. The absence of international standards in Yugoslavia aggravates the arbitrary rule of state power.
There is no vision for the future of the Balkans. This cannot but jeapordise the overall long-term stability and democracy in Europe. A policy which confers total political power in Serbia to Slobodan Milosevic is bound to backfire on the international community and lead to a further deterioration of a calamitous political and economic situation in the region.

go to top

P.O. Box, CH-8031 Zürich, Switzerland
Phone +41-1-272 46 37,  Fax +41-1-272 46 82, email: info@MEDIENHILFE.ch